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The
Closingtrend Indicators
On
this page you'll find general information about the
Morning Trend Indicator (MTI) and
the
Closing Trend
Indicator (CTI).
What times are
the ClosingTrend updates made?
The MTI
update is made at 9:35 am and uploaded at 9:40 am. The
CTI update is made at 1 pm and uploaded 1:05 pm. All
times are eastern and updates can be accessed by
clicking on their links in the Members Only area.
What is the ClosingTrend
Indicator (CTI)?
The CTI is an
Intraday Market timing Indicator that predicts the
afternoon Market Action after 1:05 pm until the 4 pm
Close. It is designed to monitor the intentions of the
"Smart Money", or those who normally have the greatest
influence over the Market.
What is the
Morning Trend Indicator
(MTI)?
The MTI is a hybrid
of the Closing Trend indicator that was designed to
forecast the often volatile Morning session . It focuses
on the 9:30 am until 12 pm time frame, and also
monitors the intentions of the "Smart Money".
How accurate is
each Indicator ?
Historically the CTI has a 75% rate of making
accurate forecasts since it was created in 1992. The MTI
has a 65% accuracy rate as determined by backtesting
of nearly 2 years of intraday Market data.
How
often do the Indicators have the same reading?
Nearly
2 years of backtesting shows that the MTI & CTI confirm
each other 50% of the time.
Are there certain
days when the ClosingTrend
Indicators are less accurate?
The ClosingTrend
Indicators are designed to monitor the intentions of the
"Smart Money". Historically the CTI & MTI have
lower accuracy on days when the "Smart Money" plays a
less dominant roll in the Markets. These include:
1)Option expiration
days , especially the afternoon session.
2)Days when major
economic data is being released after the MTI or
CTI update has been made
3)Pre-holiday
sessions.
Why isn't the CTI as effective on
Options expiration days ?
The reason is that Option Ex. Fridays, especially the
afternoon are dominated by large Options players. They
become very active at that time because the Options they are
buying have lost all their premium and are extremely cheap.
They then use large automated program trades to move
the underlying stock or index to benefit their super cheap
and large option positions. This is why you often see
the Market spike suddenly as the Close draws nearer on
options ex. Fridays. It should be noted that for this reason
program trades are more common during the entire option
expiration week.
What about
days when major economic data is released after the MTI
or CTI update has been made?
The "Smart Money" often sits on the sidelines
ahead of Economic data being released, especially if
they as a group haven't formed a consensus
opinion. This usually shows up in a neutral CTI or MTI
reading which is a reflection of this group wanting
to wait to see what the data is before making their
trading decisions. However more often than not they do
have a consensus opinion formed, which shows up in a
STRONG or WEAK CTI or MTI forecast. It is when the
economic data released is surprising and not what
was expected that the Market reacts counter to these
forecasts.
And how about
pre-holiday sessions?
Quite simply the
"Smart Money" are usually the first ones out the door
during pre-holiday sessions.
Which Indicator
forecasts more profitable trends?
The
fact that the MTI call is made so early in the session,
while the trend is young or still hasn't started gives
it the edge in profitability.
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